Mali is now going through one of the darkest periods in its contemporary history. Located in the heart of the Sahel, Senegal's border, this country once symbol of cultural diversity and popular resilience is now stuck in the a multidimensional crisis: political, security, economic and social.
But this crisis is no longer in Bamako. It irradiates the entire region, and its effects are already spreading to its neighbours.
To ignore this reality would be an act of Strategic blindness. As an African proverb says: « When your neighbor's box burns, you better help him put out the fire instead of watching the flames ravage his home by telling you that's not your problem. »
The fire is already there; We're running out.
Mali's triple threat crisis reinforced
Mali is caught between three destabilizing forces:
- First, the rise of jihadist terrorismThese groups exploit the weaknesses of the state. They invest entire areas, exercise social, economic and military domination, impose chaos, actively recruit and want to make Mali a « African Afghanistan ».
- Then, collapse of the legitimacy of the Malian state: the current regime resulting from a putsch, fails to embody governance, struggles to restore security, and is further isolated internationally.
- Finally, the presence of Russian mercenaries and external interests that reverse the balance: under cover of security aid, predation operations, abuses, looting are multiplying. These practices further weaken the state and deliver territories to a rent logic.
But the crisis does not stop there: it is magnified by deep internal fractures.
Terrorism no longer merely threatens the State; ieroding social cohesion, exploiting inter-ethnic rivalries, suspicions of collaboration, reprisals and community violence.
Local authorities or groups attribute collaborations with jihadists to certain "franges" of the population: this paves the way for massacres, cycles of revenge, increased violence and fertile ground for terrorist recruitment.
In conflict zones, civilians, including communities such as the Peuls, find themselves trapped: victims of accusations, evictions, reprisals on one side, and duplicated by jihadist groups on the other.
Local community defence militias, created to protect themselves, are themselves becoming vectors of violence against other communities deemed "complicious", fuelling a vicious circle of atrocities.
This means that it is not only the war between the state and the jihadists: it is a war between communities, a conflict of legitimacy, protection, revenge and survival.
The formidable regional effects
This Malian storm is not confined. The Senegalese neighbour, and more broadly the subregion, are directly threatened.
Safe contamination: The porosity of the borders, the vast uncontrolled areas, the proliferation of armed groups make insecurity migrate. What was located yesterday in the centre of Mali now radiates the border area of Senegal and Mauritania. The real danger is that the Malian crisis will become a West African crisis.
Migration and humanitarian pressure: Chaos is causing massive population displacement. Senegal could see the influx of refugees that it will find difficult to absorb. This breach of the national capacity threshold will close badly with a social, economic and security crisis within its territory.
Fragilization of neighbouring StatesInstability in a neighbouring country can become the focus of a cross-border crisis. African history has shown: What happened in Rwanda has had consequences in the DRC for decades. It is illusory to believe that Senegal or any other West African country can remain spectators.
Regional institutional blockage: The establishment of AES (Alliance of Sahel States) by Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso marks a strategic turning point: these States have left the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and are seeking another model of integration. This weakens the West African intervention framework, makes classical solidarity mechanisms more difficult, and complicates the possibility of a coordinated collective response via ECOWAS.
AES: an additional challenge for mobilization
The exit of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger from the ECOWAS framework to form the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) poses a major challenge for collective action. This bloc, which demands greater sovereignty, an alliance of mutual defence and a distance from ECOWAS/Western logics, is changing the situation.
- This undermines the traditional regional approach: ECOWAS can no longer act as usual in these States without adjusting its framework.
- This reinforces the isolation of States in crisis, which can aggravate the security and humanitarian situation.
- This gives jihadist groups a lever: institutional division is an asset for them, because it fragments responses, dilutes responsibilities and creates governance gaps.
- For countries like Senegal, this means that the traditional regional alliance (ECOWAS) has less leverage. This means that we need to think about it differently, in partnership with other actors, but urgently.
Why regional intervention is now a question of survival
This is no longer a moral or humanitarian option: is a strategic necessity. If Mali collapses, if the community divide worsens, if territories are lost to the state and fall into the grip of jihadists, then the rest of the region becomes vulnerable.
- Senegal cannot wait for the fire to hit its own roof. The flow of migration, the influx of weapons, the radicalisation of young people, the erosion of the border, is already on the move.
- An urgent mobilization of ECOWAS States must take into account the new situation: the existence of ESA, the internal fractures in countries in crisis, the need to support civil society, the humanitarian dimension and economic solidarity.
- One must think of a global action: political (dialogue, governance, inclusion), Security (regional force, patrols, cross-border cooperation), socio-economic (aid, recovery, protection of civilians), humanitarian (refugees, internal displacement).
- There is a need to restore public confidence, combat community reprisals, repair fractures, restore the rule of law and protect civilians; Because every massacre, every revenge, every terrorist recruit is a crack in the foundation of regional peace.
A vital issue, far beyond security
The fire is there, and its flames already lick the walls of our own houses. But beyond the security threat, we must understand that this crisis is also a threat. major economic for the entire subregion, particularly Senegal.
Mali, a landlocked country, has always depended on its neighbours for access to external markets. Among them, Senegal occupies a central place. The autonomous port of Dakar is for Mali an economic lunga key entry point for its imports, including fuel, food, construction materials, pharmaceuticals.
Every day, hundreds of Malian trucks leave the port of Dakar to refuel Bamako and other Malian cities. But today, These convoys are attacked almost daily by armed groups in border areas, especially at the entrance of Malian territory. These attacks are not only acts of banditry; they are strategic.
By asphyxiating the Malian economy, the jihadists further weaken the state, increase the precariousness of the population, and create a land favourable to their grip.
Fuel and essential goods shortages are increasingfuelling social frustration, crippling transport and further weakening the already fragile Malian economic fabric.
And what strikes Mali will eventually end up Impacting Senegal, by the interruption of trade flows, the rise of insecurity at borders, or the loss of economic opportunities. Interdependence is a fact: when Mali is wavering, Senegal is also unbalanced.
Call for action
Thus, acting for Mali is not a distant humanitarian gesture. It is an act of preservation of regional balances, protection of common economic interests, defence of strategic logistics corridors. The port of Dakar, the roads from Tambacounda to Kayes, the customs posts, the transit areas, are all threatened today. That is why mobilization cannot wait any longer.
We must act now, with clarity and determination, to extinguish the flames of this crisis before they consume not only a country, but an entire region, its resources, its populations, and its hopes for development; For in this Sahelian fire, it is the future of West Africa that is being played; and each of us is concerned.
To the West African leadersIt is time to lift the hesitations. It is time to innovate in the forms of cooperation, to implement a crisis strategy that depends not only on the ECOWAS institution but on a wider, adaptive and rapid partnership.
To civil societiesThe media, NGOs, academics, citizens, you have a decisive role: alerting, raising awareness, lobbying, building cross-border solidarity.
To the people: the threat is not isolated; It is collective. Aid cannot remain external: it starts with vigilance, solidarity, recognition that instability in the neighbour can become yours.
The fire is there, and its flames already lick the walls of our houses. The only question left is: Will we turn off the fire together or wait for him to burn us all?
The time is no longer in sight. She's in action.
For Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, the region, Senegal.
Let us now act, intensely, in solidarity; Because tomorrow could be too late.
