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As international relations move dangerously towards an era dominated by the law of the strongest, Africa finds itself at the heart of a new world order governed by strategic predation. Faced with the collapse of the diplomatic principles inherited from the post-war period, the rich but vulnerable continent became the prime target of a ruthless struggle of influence between the great powers. This alert manifesto on the urgency of a united, strategic and sovereign African response to counter this rampant peril.
A New Era: Unmanned Diplomacy
Since the end of the Second World War, the international order was based on a body of principles forged in the fire of the conflicts that had ravaged the globe. The Charter of the United Nations, adopted in 1945, was not only a proclamation of good intentions, but a normative structure based on respect for sovereignty, the inviolability of borders, the prohibition of the use of force, the rule of law and diplomatic immunity. This fragile but effective consensus served as a guard against the vast majority of states, holding back the natural hegemonic impulses of the strongest powers.
Today, however, this normative architecture is collapsing. At the dawn of the President's second term Donald Trump, international relations sink into a logic of jungle : a jungle where the law of the highest premium, where moral commitments are reduced to power calculations and where traditional diplomacy is abandoned to the benefit of assumed strategic aggressiveness.
This slide is not accidental. It is the product of a political ideology that dissolves multilateral norms in the brutal rationalism of economic and security interests. The inevitable consequence is the reversal of the principles that have structured the world since 1945, leaving room for an exacerbated competition where the strongest imposes its law on the weakestnot only by persuasion or influence, but by economic, political and possibly military means.
From the international order to the jungle: the American mutation
The Trump administration, both in its first mandate and in its return to power, embodies a decisive break with the conventional multilateral order. Its doctrine, implicit but tangible, is based on a transactional conception of international relations: every alliance, every commitment must be profitable, measurable in terms of immediate and tangible interests. Where America once wanted to be the guarantor of a system, it is now the main player in an open competition world.
This paradigm is explained by several factors: the United States' retreat on the international stage, the emergence of competing powers, the internal pressure of nationalist and isolationist political segments, and a redefinition of the strategic use of force. In this context, respect for the sovereignty of others and international norms has become secondary to the quest for geopolitical superiority. It is a dynamic that transforms the diplomatic arena into a battlefield where strategic interest over international law.
This decline in multilateral consensus makes the reading of what I call « Law of the jungle » An environment where dominant powers openly compete for access to resources, trade routes, strategic geopolitical positions. It is no longer values, but gross interests that determine relations between States.
Africa: prey or major strategic issue
In this new configuration, Africa is instantly at the center of the lust. Which region of the world has such an attractive set of attributes for geopolitical predators?
It has immense and underexploited natural resourcesrare earths, hydrocarbons, strategic metals, mineral resources essential for the global energy transition. These potentials not only attract the appetite of advanced economies, but also of emerging powers such as China and Russia, eager for raw materials and markets.
At the same time, Africa suffers from deep structural weaknesses Inadequate militarization, institutional fragility, broken governance, endemic political instability, and porosity to external influences. This cocktail makes her particularly vulnerable to the maneuvers of external powers operating according to the succession of « Strategic areas of interest ». Thus, what once would have been the subject of sophisticated diplomatic competition is now likely to degenerate into open confrontation: economic, political and even military.
Medium power and strategic competition
We must not see in the American posture the only factor in this great game. China, Russia, Europe, each in its own way, are in the process of recalibrating their international strategies in a way that favours the direct competition for multilateral dialogue.
• China
China, with its economic growth, New Silk Routes project and growing technological base, has transformed development aid into a tool of influence. It no longer hides its ambition to consolidate areas of strategic influence, including in Africa. Through loans, investments in infrastructure, security partnerships, it often integrates into African states with an efficiency that the West, hampered by norms and principles, struggles to match.
• Russia
Russia, for its part, uses its military power and arms exports as levers of influence. In several African States, it is present not only as a supplier of weapons, but also as a strategic partner; sometimes in the absence of strong democratic or human rights counterparts. Moscow sees it as an opportunity to challenge Western hegemony and to reposition its presence in regions traditionally under French or American influence.
• Europe
Europe oscillates between a desire to assert autonomous diplomacy and a continuing dependence on the United States for security issues. This ambivalence weakens its ability to act in a politically and economically transforming Africa. Without a clearly defined strategy, Europe risks being marginalized, while other actors consolidate their presence.
In this context of open competition, Africa is drawn between powers that act less on principles than on brutal interests. The principle of protection of economic and strategic interests has become the alpha and the omega of foreign policies. At the end of this process, only powers capable of exerting pressure through military force, economic attraction or political influence will have a significant role to play.
Diplomacy in crumbs: an international standard in crisis
Diplomacy, as conceived at the end of the Second World War, was the art of articulating national interests in the service not only of power, but also of stability. It was framed by a set of standards: respect for borders, diplomatic immunity, the rule of non-intervention in internal affairs, international arbitration of disputes. These norms were not perfect, but they structured international relations and limited unilateral drifts.
Today, these safeguards are breaking up. The question is no longer whether these standards are being met, but how to circumvent them to maximize their gains. Diplomacy is becoming a tactic in the exclusive service of immediate interest, rather than a tool for conflict management and peace-keeping. This transformation is particularly dangerous for weak states, unable to impose on powerful partners who do not hesitate to use all the levers: economic, political or military, to achieve their objectives.
When diplomatic immunity becomes a flexible concept, when respect for borders is questioned in the name of strategic interests, when multilateral negotiations are relegated to the background behind asymmetric bilateral agreements, then we are witnessing The collapse of the diplomatic order itself.
Why Africa is at risk
Africa has become the epicentre of this struggle of influence for several converging reasons:
A mosaic of fragile states
Most African countries are small political units, often derived from arbitrary colonial divisions. These States are sometimes unable to ensure internal security, respond effectively to development challenges, or build strong institutions. This institutional fragility is precisely what the external powers are seeking: an easy entry point, a population to mobilize, an elite to influence.
Political and economic porosity
Many African governments face problems of corruption, political clientelism, and foreign influence. The lack of effective transparency and accountability mechanisms makes these societies vulnerable to external penetration strategies. Sometimes opaque investments, ad hoc security agreements, unbalanced economic partnerships; All these vectors become instruments of lasting influence.
Security instability
Sub-Saharan Africa is marked by persistent internal conflicts, separatist movements, violent extremism and humanitarian crises. This instability provides a pretext for the external powers to intervene so-called on behalf of regional security, but often to protect strategic interests. This is the perfect recipe to justify a prolonged presence under cover of stabilization.
Coveted Resources
From Congo's cobalt to Nigerian oil, from African arable land to rare metals essential for the technological revolution, Africa holds resources that the major powers consider critical. Competition for these resources may increase pressure, leading some States to use force or coercive methods to secure their supplies.
Predation Scenarios: Towards a Recomposition of Global Power
In a jungle where force becomes a legitimate means of predation, several worrying scenarios emerge:
The militarization of rivalries
Powers could be tempted to expand their areas of influence through armed interventions « hybrids » Mercenaries, private forces, direct security contracts, camouflaged military presence in humanitarian missions. Under the pretext of combating terrorism or providing security assistance, such operations could establish spheres of lasting influence, to the detriment of the sovereignty of African States.
Economy as a strategic weapon
External debt, loans conditional on political clauses, monopolies on key sectors; These economic tools become more effective means of coercion than direct military power. African countries could end up trapped in financial dependency which undermine their strategic autonomy.
Internal political fragmentation
While external powers exploit internal divisions, inter-ethnic tensions, regional rivalries or institutional crises, African states may be fragmented from within. This dynamic allows external actors to play against each other, consolidating their own influence while weakening local state structures.
The crucial role of African unity
Faced with these perils, continental unity is no longer an abstract ideal; it becomes a vital strategic imperative. Africa can only counter predatory dynamics by developing a collective response. This involves several key areas of action:
Institutional consolidation
African States must strengthen their institutions, improve transparency, combat corruption and establish robust legal frameworks capable of protecting their resources and sovereign interests.
Military and security cooperation
Security cooperation is essential to address transnational threats. This must be done not under the exclusive leadership of external actors, but through African collective defence mechanisms.
An independent African diplomacy
Africa must have a diplomacy capable of defending its interests in a unified way. The African Union and other regional platforms must be strengthened, with a capacity to negotiate in bloc against the major powers.
Regional economic integration
The creation of integrated regional economic zones, common markets and African value chains is essential to reduce dependence on external actors and to strengthen the continent's economic resilience.
A strategic vision for Africa
Africa must not resign itself to being a mere arena of external rivalries. On the contrary, it can become an autonomous actor, capable of transforming its strategic position into a lever of power. This requires a shared vision, embedded in a long-term strategy that:
- values the African interests as prioritiesrather than subordinate them to external agendas,
- foster balanced partnerships based on mutual respect, reciprocity and sustainable development,
- integrates African peoples in the definition of economic, social and political priorities.
The last chance of a continent
We are at a historic turning point. The international order is mutating. Instead of a normative system based on rules, we are witnessing the emergence of a space dominated by the law of the strongest; a jungle where external powers compete for areas of influence, resources and strategic positions.
Africa, with its strengths and vulnerabilities, is at the heart of this great game. She is both coveted and threatened. But it is not doomed to be just a prey. If its leaders understand the urgency of the hour, if they unite beyond the differences, if they build strong institutions and firm diplomacy, then Africa can not only resist predation, but also shape a future where it will be a central player in the international system.
This manifesto is not a simple analysis. It is a call, a passionate appeal to the strategic consciousness of African States. It is no longer a matter of attentism or fragmentation, but of unity, solidarity and collective determination. For in a world where Only the law of the strongest seems to prevail todayThere is no other way than cohesion to guarantee the sovereignty, dignity and future of Africa.
