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The « exit from CFA franc » is not only a political act: it is a simultaneous transformation of law, public finance, financial stability, monetary logistics, diplomacy and trust.
The major risk is not simply to issue a new currency, but to prevent a poorly sequenced transition from triggering a currency crisis, a banking crisis, imported inflation and accelerated debt sustainability. The credibility, liquidity and continuity of payments then become vital issues.
Senegal is addressing this debate in a constrained financial situation. According to the IMF, the total debt of the public sector would reach 132% of GDP by the end of 2024, including arrears in domestic expenditure pending the findings of an audit. In this context, the margin of error is low: the slightest loss of confidence is paid for in rising rates, liquidity pressures and exchange pressures.
The issue is therefore not whether « Get out » is desirable in theory, but under what conditions of institutional design, sequencing, safety nets and macroeconomic discipline a transition can be conducted without systemic shock. This episode offers an operational reading of possible scenarios and essential safeguards.
