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Audio version — Podcast BAOBIZZ
When revolutions close

The political history of humanity seems to be crossed by a fundamental contradiction: revolutions are born of the will to break an unjust order and to open the field of possibilities; They bring hope for a freer, more egalitarian, more just society. Yet, in an impressive number of cases, these moments of collective exaltation lead not to emancipation, but to a recomposition of domination. — in forms which are sometimes even more rigid than those which they had begun to abolish.

Both the twentieth and twenty-first centuries bear witness to this disturbing regularity: revolutionary ideals, bearing a promise of liberation, often lead to the consolidation of new authoritarian powers. This phenomenon is neither specific to a continent nor to a period of time, but is a universal source of profound political transformation.

The revolutionary cycle — universal scheme

Rupture mobilisation · espoir Capture organisation · force Exception urgence · restriction Domination pouvoir · autoritarisme Nouvelle crise frustrations · révolte Le paradoxe universel

Revolutionary lantern: rupture and projection of utopia

At the heart of any revolution is a double dynamic: a violent rejection of the old order and a projection towards a horizon still indistinct but loaded with promises. Revolutionary actors imagine a society untied from previous constraints, liberated from discredited hierarchies, governed by popular will.

However, this initial effervescence is accompanied by a profound lack of awareness of the institutional work needed to transform popular mobilization into a sustainable system. Revolutionary energy excels in destruction, but struggles to structure itself in the long time. It is this gap between the utopian momentum and the complexity of institutional reconstruction that opens the gap allowing the best organized forces to seize revolutionary dynamics.

The capture of the revolutionary moment: a recurring phenomenon

Whatever the historical context, an invariant appears: The masses that carry the revolution very rarely have the necessary political structures to transform their mobilization into institutional power. They are multiple, heterogeneous, crossed by divergent aspirations. They share a desire to break but not necessarily the means to govern, nor a unified vision of the future.

In front of them are actors with superior organisational capital: disciplined parties, bureaucratic elites, military apparatus, centralized ideological structures.

Revolutionary France

The Committee of Salut Public then Napoleon

The Napoleonic technocracy closed the revolution. The popular spontaneity of 1789 gave way to the authoritarian rationalization of the state.

Russia post-1917

The Bolshevik Party

Labour and peasant mobilization is quickly channelled through Party discipline. The promise of the Soviets disappeared in Stalinist centralization.

· Maoist China

The Chinese Communist Party

The aspiring national liberation turned into a Party dictatorship. The Cultural Revolution replaces ideological terror with promised emancipation.

🌍 Anticolonial movements

Political-military apparatus

In many African countries, national liberation movements capture independence and become party-states.

The revolution opens a fluid political space that organized actors quickly close by imposing their own order — often in the name of revolution itself.

The state of exception: the internal logic of authoritarian consolidation

Once power is conquered, the new regime must overcome the contradiction between the revolutionary ideal proclaimed and the real capabilities at its disposal. This is where an almost universal mechanism begins: construction of a state of emergency.

The new power proclaims that the revolution is threatened, that the security of the nation requires extraordinary measures, whether internal or external enemies seek to overthrow the new order. This rhetoric allows us to introduce a temporary suspension of freedoms, which then becomes permanent. Centralization is accelerating, surveillance is institutionalizing, opposition is criminalised.

This shift is not specific to militarized or ideological regimes. It is found in aborted democratic revolutions, post-authoritarian transitions, nationalist or religious movements. Every time, the emergency speech creates the conditions for the new domination.

Opposite promises: the gap between ideal and reality

Revolutions often fail because they promise more than they can achieve. They are driven by an aspiration to transform not only institutions, but also society, social relations, sometimes even individual behaviour. Or. No regime, whatever its degree of radicality, can reconfigure in a few years structures inherited from decades or even centuries.

This gap between ideal and possible causes a twofold effect: the frustration of the masses waiting for immediate transformation, and the temptation of power to strengthen coercive devices to compensate for its inability to meet these expectations. Thus, the revolution that promised collective liberation shifts into a dynamic where order is maintained by force, not by accession.

The reproduction of forms of domination: a universal cycle

The most paradoxical phenomenon, and the most constant of revolutions, is their tendency to rebuild the very mechanisms of domination that they sought to destroy. Revolutionary elites replace the old ones, sometimes with greater efficiency. The administrative apparatus is purged and reconstituted with even more centralized structures.

Revolutionaries find themselves trapped by the very necessities of the modern state, which imposes its centralizing logic independently of the ideals proclaimed. In this sense, the Napoleonic, Stalinist, Maoist, castrist or even aborted democratic transition trajectories come under the same structure:

The revolution opens the way to authoritarianism because the destruction of institutions makes the use of power almost inevitable in the post-revolutionary phase.

Structural constraints: why do certain revolutions derive more?

Revolutions never take place in a social or historical vacuum. Their outcome depends largely on several structural factors:

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Institutional Fragility

Lack of independent judicial institutions, free media or a structured middle class. The weaker the counter-powers, the faster the drift.

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Geopolitical pressures

Penalties, foreign intervention, geopolitical divisions, economic dependence. These constraints serve as a justification for the centralization of power.

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Social cohesion

A fragmented society, crossed by ethnic, religious or regional divisions, makes the construction of an inclusive post-revolutionary order almost impossible.

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Pre-existing institutional architecture

The strength of previous institutions determines the capacity to rebuild after the breakup. The more fragile they were, the more dangerous the post-revolutionary vacuum is.

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Maturity of counter-powers

An active civil society, a free press, organised opposition parties: without these safeguards, no regime emerging from a revolution can be controlled.

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Political culture

A culture that values the balance of power, deliberation and responsibility of leaders is the minimum condition for a revolution not confiscated.

A universal phenomenon, but not fatality

The history of all revolutions reveals a constant: The initial ability to overthrow the old order in no way guarantees the construction of a new order in line with the aspirations of the masses. This paradox, universal and timeless, is rooted in deep-rooted constraints.

Yet this cycle is not inevitable. Some transitions have shown that a revolution can avoid authoritarian drift when it is based on three conditions:

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A consolidated civil societyIndependent of political power, capable of exerting constant pressure and organizing alternatives in case of drift.
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Independent institutionsJustice, press, army, counter-powers that obey rules, not men. They alone can absorb revolutionary energy without diverting it.
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A political culture of deliberationParticipation, responsibility and debate as norms, substituted for the logic of exception and permanent urgency.

The True Revolution

The true revolution is not all contained in the moment of the rupture; It is played in the ability of a society to transform this moment into a stable, inclusive and open order.

As long as this transformation remains fragile, revolutions, in Africa as elsewhere, will continue to give way to a tragic reality: The hope of the people becomes the raw material of a new form of enslavement.