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[Analysis] Baobab Choices #29 — First develop or democratize?

Reading time: 3 minutes


Policy · Revelation

Episode #29

Reminder of the dilemma

A — Accept the authoritarian pact to industrialize the country in ten years.

B — Choose immediate democracy, even at the cost of slow development.


If you chose A

Choosing A is betting that prosperity will bring freedom — as Singapore or Rwanda have tried. It's also willing to muzzle your own people in the name of their future. You become the surgeon who operates without anesthesia, convinced that today's pain heals the evils of tomorrow.


If you have chosen B

Choosing B means honouring the immediate political dignity of every citizen, even the empty stomach. It is to believe that democracy is not a luxury of rich countries but a fundamental right. But it is also a risk that this freedom, without bread to accompany it, becomes an empty shell delivered to demagogues.

This dilemma is the Gordian node of the continent. Since independence, Africa has oscillated between two betrayed promises: that of authoritarian development — who has often produced dictatorships without development — and that of imported democracy — who sometimes gave birth to elections without social transformation.

Choice A is based on an attractive logic, that of the Asian model. South Korea, China, Singapore built their prosperity under strong regimes before opening up — sometimes — political space. But this story omits disasters: the Mobutu, the Mugabe, all these « developers » self-proclaimed who only developed their bank accounts. The risk is immense: once the power is concentrated, who guarantees that it will be returned?

Choice B is based on a noble conviction: a sovereign people will find their own way to prosperity. Senegal embodies this tradition — An imperfect but living democracy, where alternations exist. Yet democracy without a solid rule of law, without effective justice, without worthy public services, looks like an empty engine. Elections become rituals without tomorrow unless they are accompanied by institutions capable of transforming voting into school, hospital, employment.

The truth is, the dilemma itself is a trap. Opposing democracy and development means accepting a framework of thought that has never been imposed on rich nations — They had time to build both, often on the backs of others. Africa does not have to choose between breathing and eating.

Baobab does not choose between its roots and branches. He sinks some into the arid earth while he deploys others to the sky. His strength is to do both at the same time — slowly, stubbornly, for centuries. The real African political courage is not in binary choice: it is in stubbornness to refuse that it is locked up.

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